How Do Output Growth Rate Distributions Look Like? Some Time-Series Evidence on OECD Countries

This paper investigates the statistical properties of within-country GDP and industrial production (IP) growth rate distributions. Many empirical contributions have recently pointed out that cross-section growth rates of firms, industries and countries all follow Laplace distributions. In this work, we test whether also within-country, time-series GDP and IP growth rates can be approximated by tent-shaped distributions. We fit output growth rates with the exponential-power (Subbotin) family of densities, which includes as particular cases both the Gaussian and the Laplace distributions. We find that, for a large number of OECD countries including the U.S., both GDP and IP growth rates are Laplace distributed. Moreover, we show that fat-tailed distributions robustly emerge even after controlling for outliers, autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity

Spatial Localization in Manufacturing: A Cross-Country Analysis

This paper employs a homogenous firms' database to investigate industry localiza- tion in European countries. More specifically, we compare, across industries and countries, the predictions of two of the most popular localization indices, i.e., the Ellison and Glaeser index (Ellison and Glaeser, 1997) and the Duranton and Over- man index (Duranton and Overman, 2005). We find that, independently from the index used, localization is a pervasive phenomenon in all countries studied, but the degree of localization is very uneven across industries in each country. Furthermore, we find that the two indices significantly diverge in predicting the intensity of the forces generating localization within each industry. Finally, we perform a cross- sectoral analysis of localized industries. We show that, in all countries, localized sectors are mainly "traditional" sectors (like jewelery, wine, and textiles) and sec- tors where scale economies are important. However, once one controls for countries' industrial structures science-based sectors turn out to be the most localized ones.Industry Localization, Manufacturing Industries, Localization Indices, Spatial Concentration, Spatial correlation, Cross-country studies

Are Output Growth-Rate Distributions Fat-Tailed? Some Evidence from OECD Countries

This work explores some distributional properties of aggregate output growth-rate time series. We show that, in the majority of OECD countries, output growth-rate distributions are well-approximated by symmetric exponential-power densities with tails much fatter than those of a Gaussian. Fat tails robustly emerge in output growth rates independently of: (i) the way we measure aggregate output; (ii) the family of densities employed in the estimation; (iii) the length of time lags used to compute growth rates. We also show that fat tails still characterize output growth-rate distributions even after one washes away outliers, autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity.Output Growth-Rate Distributions, Normality, Fat Tails, Time Series, Exponential-Power Distributions, Laplace Distributions, Output Dynamics.

Weird Ties? Growth, Cycles and Firm Dynamics in an Agent-Based Model with Financial-Market Imperfections

This paper studies how the interplay between technological shocks and financial variables shapes the properties of macroeconomic dynamics. Most of the existing literature has based the analysis of aggregate macroeconomic regularities on the representative agent hypothesis (RAH). However, recent empirical research on longitudinal micro data sets has revealed a picture of business cycles and growth dynamics that is very far from the homogeneous one postulated in models based on the RAH. In this work, we make a preliminary step in bridging this empirical evidence with theoretical explanations. We propose an agent-based model with heterogeneous firms, which interact in an economy characterized by financial-market imperfections and costly adoption of new technologies. Monte-Carlo simulations show that the model is able jointly to replicate a wide range of stylised facts characterizing both macroeconomic time-series (e.g. output and investment) and firms' microeconomic dynamics (e.g. size, growth, and productivity).Financial Market Imperfections, Business Fluctuations, Economic Growth, Firm Size, Firm Growth, Productivity Growth, Agent-Based Models.

Modelling smooth and uneven cross-sectoral growth patterns: an identification problem

This paper shows that the available stylized facts on productivity dynamics, such as persistent cross-sectoral heterogeneity, do not allow to solve an identification problem regarding the impact of common drivers - such as General Purpose Technologies (GPTs) - on economic growth. The evidence of persistently heterogeneous productivity performances is consistent both with a GPT-driven model, and with a model characterized by purely independent and idiosyncratic sectoral dynamics. These results are obtained within a simple theoretical framework, and illustrated with reference to measures of concentration of the sectoral contributions to aggregate total factor productivity growth.Growth General Purpose Technologies Real Cost Reduction Total Factor Productivity.

Spatial Localization in Manufacturing: A Cross-Country Analysis

This paper employs a homogenous firms database to investigate industry localization in European countries. More specifically, we compare, across industries and countries, the predictions of two of the most popular localization indices, i.e., the Ellison and Glaeser (1997) index and the Duranton and Overman (2005) index. We find that, independently from the index used, localization is a pervasive phenomenon in all countries studied, but the degree of localization is very uneven across industries in each country. Furthermore, we find that the two indices significantly diverge in predicting the intensity of the forces generating localization within each industry. Finally, we perform a cross-sectoral analysis of localized industries. We show that, in all countries, localized sectors are mainly ``traditional'' sectors (like jewelery, wine, and textiles) and sectors where scale economies are important. However, once one controls for countries' industrial structures science-based sectors turn out to be the most localized ones.Industry Localization; Manufacturing Industries; Localization Indices; Spatial Concentration; Spatial correlation; Cross-country studies

Les modèles multi-agents et leurs conséquences pour l’analyse macroéconomique

Cet article analyse les progrès récents de la modélisation multi-agents appliquée à l'analyse macroéconomique. Je présente d'abord les principaux ingrédients des modèles multi-agents. Ensuite, en s'appuyant sur des exemples tirés de travaux récents, je montre que les modèles multi-agents apportent des éclairages complémentaires ou nouveaux sur des questions macroéconomiques clés telles que les cycles économiques endogènes, les interactions entre cycles et croissance à long terme, le rôle des ajustements de prix versus quantités dans le retour au plein emploi. Enfin, je discute certaines limites des modèles multi-agents et comment ils sont actuellement abordés dans la littérature

Are Business Cycles All Alike? A Bandpass Filter Analysis of Italian and US Cycles

In this paper, we apply the bandpass filter to the main Italian and US macroeconomic variables, we estimate cross-correlations with respect to a benchmark indicator of the business cycle, and we compare results with previous empirical analyses. The aim is to investigate on the existence of specific patterns and more general regularities, in order to provide further insights as to what facts macroeconomic theories are supposed to predict and explain, and new hints at the underlying generating mechanisms. Our results underline the existence of significant specificities of the Italian business cycle with respect to the US. Certain macroeconomic relations - such as those between consumption, investments, exports, stock market variables, and the real GDP - do not robustly hold. This is a clear signal that which variables prompt and which respond to business cycles depends on country- specific characteristics.Business Cycles, Bandpass Filter, Cross Correlations, Italian Economy, Macroeconomics.

Are Output Growth-Rate Distributions Fat-Tailed? Some Evidence from OECD Countries

This work explores some distributional properties of aggregate output growth-rate time series. We show that, in the majority of OECD countries, output growth-rate distributions are well-approximated by symmetric exponential-power densities with tails much fatter than those of a Gaussian. Fat tails robustly emerge in output growth rates independently of: (i) the way we measure aggregate output; (ii) the family of densities employed in the estimation; (iii) the length of time lags used to compute growth rates. We also show that fat tails still characterize output growth-rate distributions even after one washes away outliers, autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity.Output Growth-Rate Distributions, Normality, Fat Tails, Time Series, Exponential-Power Distributions, Laplace Distributions, Output Dynamics.